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M94A0596.TXT
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1994-10-21
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Document 0596
DOCN M94A0596
TI Modelling the HIV epidemic, results from a three year project.
DT 9412
AU Kault D; Dept. Maths & Stats, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld.
SO Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1993 Oct 28-30;5:88 (poster no. 27).
Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM5/94349059
AB HIV spreads through a network of sexual contacts. Sexual behaviour
surveys give insufficient information about this network to allow
predictions of the spread of HIV. However, this information is encoded
in the detailed epidemiology of other STDs as these have spread through
the same network now available for HIV. Mathematical models allow
decoding of this and other aspects of HIV epidemiology and enable long
term predictions of the course of the epidemic and the efficiencies of
interventions. Modelling shows that the marked decline in incidence of
gonorrhea and new cases of HIV infection in communities affected by AIDS
can be explained by the natural history of the epidemic without
behavioural change. It is predicted that HIV will become endemic and
there will probably be a heterosexual epidemic in Australia. Modelling
also shows that general condom promotion and removal of HIV, positives
from risky sexual activity are in theory equally effective preventive
strategies. Reducing partner change rates is less effective in the
medium term. Targeting preventive interventions at STD clinic attendees
will be effective only when a small epidemic is expected. Reintroducing
routine neonatal circumcision may be an important overlooked weapon in
long term anti-HIV strategies.
DE Circumcision Cross-Sectional Studies *Disease Outbreaks Female
Gonorrhea/EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Human HIV
Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/*TRANSMISSION Incidence
Infant, Newborn Male *Models, Statistical Patient Care Team
Pregnancy Sex Behavior MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).